Home builder confidence is holding firm this month, according to the National Association of Home Builders.
The group’s monthly Housing Market Index survey posted 16 for December. That’s the same value as from November. It’s also equal to this 2010’s average HMI reading.
HMI is scored on a scale of 1-100, and is a composite of 3 separate home builder surveys measuring single-family sales; projected single-family sales over the next six months; and prospective buyer foot traffic.
The results of the 3 surveys were as follows:
- Single-Family Sales : 16 (unchanged from November)
- Projected Single-Family Sales : 25 (unchanged from November)
- Prospective Buyer Foot Traffic : 11 (from 12 in November)
Values of 50 or better indicate favorable conditions for home builders. Values below 50 indicate unfavorable conditions.
In other words, although improving, conditions for home builders remain less from excellent. Home buyers in San Francisco can use this to their advantage. When builders feel pressure from the market, they’re more likely to offer discounts.
On the other hand, job growth is returning, the economy is expanding, and mortgage rates are rising. These 3 factors are thought to boost housing markets. So, despite an unfavorable HMI reading, home builders might still be less willing to “make a deal”; holding out for a better 2011.
November’s strong Housing Starts data supports that line of thinking.
If you’re buying a newly-built home in the Moraga area , or expect to buy sometime in 2011, keep an eye on home builder sentiment surveys. The better the builders feel, the more you may be asked to pay to buy your next home.
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